Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level
Italy was one of the countries severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. An analysis of the factors that played a role in the spread of this epidemic is necessary. However, the assessment of which factors may be specific, and which may contribute the most is complex and involves a high degree of u...
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| Formatua: | Online |
| Hizkuntza: | ingelesa |
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Firenze University Press, Genova University Press
2023
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| Sarrera elektronikoa: | ONIX_20230803_9791221501063_87 |
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| _version_ | 1869517470413357056 |
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| author | Truglia, Francesco Giovanni Antolini, Fabrizio Cesarini, Samuele |
| author_browse | Antolini, Fabrizio Cesarini, Samuele Truglia, Francesco Giovanni |
| author_facet | Truglia, Francesco Giovanni Antolini, Fabrizio Cesarini, Samuele |
| author_sort | Truglia, Francesco Giovanni |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | Italy was one of the countries severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. An analysis of the factors that played a role in the spread of this epidemic is necessary. However, the assessment of which factors may be specific, and which may contribute the most is complex and involves a high degree of uncertainty. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and analyse the statistical associations of the spread of Covid-19 infection with identified spatial context variables (density, old-age index, average temperature, and pollution). For this purpose, the developments from the spatial convergence theory were considered, as well as data from the Italian provinces from March 2020 to February 2021, referring to the first, second and third wave. The hypothesis tested in this study is to investigate the contribution of environmental and demographic factors to the convergence of observed infection rates. Based on panel data of 107 Italian provinces from the first to the third wave, this article uses a spatial autoregressive model (SAR) to analyse the conditional β-convergence of Covid-19 infection rates. The empirical results of this paper show that there is spatial conditional β-convergence in the intensity of infection rates. This means that the contagion in neighbouring areas will affect the contagion in the local area. The age structure and population density of the provinces had a certain promoting effect on the transmission of the infection, depending on the wave analysed. Regarding the observed average temperature, the effects are not very significant and inconsistent. For the first and last wave, the level of pollution is significant in explaining the convergence processes of the infection. We demonstrate that accounting for spatial factors is essential to capture key features of the spread of Covid-19 infection. |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-112043 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Firenze University Press, Genova University Press |
| publisherStr | Firenze University Press, Genova University Press |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-1120432025-07-17T10:01:32Z Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level Truglia, Francesco Giovanni Antolini, Fabrizio Cesarini, Samuele Covid-19 Italian provinces Conditional β-convergence SAR model thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences Italy was one of the countries severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. An analysis of the factors that played a role in the spread of this epidemic is necessary. However, the assessment of which factors may be specific, and which may contribute the most is complex and involves a high degree of uncertainty. The main objective of this study is to evaluate and analyse the statistical associations of the spread of Covid-19 infection with identified spatial context variables (density, old-age index, average temperature, and pollution). For this purpose, the developments from the spatial convergence theory were considered, as well as data from the Italian provinces from March 2020 to February 2021, referring to the first, second and third wave. The hypothesis tested in this study is to investigate the contribution of environmental and demographic factors to the convergence of observed infection rates. Based on panel data of 107 Italian provinces from the first to the third wave, this article uses a spatial autoregressive model (SAR) to analyse the conditional β-convergence of Covid-19 infection rates. The empirical results of this paper show that there is spatial conditional β-convergence in the intensity of infection rates. This means that the contagion in neighbouring areas will affect the contagion in the local area. The age structure and population density of the provinces had a certain promoting effect on the transmission of the infection, depending on the wave analysed. Regarding the observed average temperature, the effects are not very significant and inconsistent. For the first and last wave, the level of pollution is significant in explaining the convergence processes of the infection. We demonstrate that accounting for spatial factors is essential to capture key features of the spread of Covid-19 infection. 2023-08-08T04:47:28Z 2023-08-08T04:47:28Z 2023-08-03T15:05:49Z 2023 chapter ONIX_20230803_9791221501063_87 2704-5846 https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/74891 9791221501063 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/112043 eng Proceedings e report open access image/png image/jpeg Attribution 4.0 International Attribution 4.0 International https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/74891/1/9791221501063-19.pdf https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/74891/1/9791221501063-19.pdf Firenze University Press, Genova University Press 10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.19 10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.19 74113d79-2268-4658-88bb-6e8757c543b0 ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making 9791221501063 6 Florence open access |
| spellingShingle | Covid-19 Italian provinces Conditional β-convergence SAR model thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences Truglia, Francesco Giovanni Antolini, Fabrizio Cesarini, Samuele Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title | Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title_full | Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title_fullStr | Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title_short | Chapter Spread of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021: empirical evidence at provincial level |
| title_sort | chapter spread of covid 19 epidemic in italy between march 2020 and february 2021 empirical evidence at provincial level |
| topic | Covid-19 Italian provinces Conditional β-convergence SAR model thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences |
| topic_facet | Covid-19 Italian provinces Conditional β-convergence SAR model thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences |
| url | ONIX_20230803_9791221501063_87 |
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