Shaping the Next One Hundred Years
A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissu...
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| Materialtyp: | Online |
| Språk: | engelska |
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RAND Corporation
2023
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| Länkar: | ONIX_20231005_9780833034854_314 |
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| _version_ | 1869530236640559104 |
|---|---|
| author | Lempert, Robert J. |
| author_browse | Lempert, Robert J. |
| author_facet | Lempert, Robert J. |
| author_sort | Lempert, Robert J. |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty. |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-114540 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | RAND Corporation |
| publisherStr | RAND Corporation |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-1145402024-04-11T15:11:18Z Shaping the Next One Hundred Years Lempert, Robert J. Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::T Technology, Engineering, Agriculture, Industrial processes::TB Technology: general issues thema EDItEUR::W Lifestyle, Hobbies and Leisure::WG Transport: general interest A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty. 2023-10-05T10:08:42Z 2023-10-05T10:08:42Z 2003 book ONIX_20231005_9780833034854_314 9780833034854 9780833032751 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/114540 eng image/jpeg n/a https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/MR1626RPC RAND Corporation 10.7249/MR1626RPC 10.7249/MR1626RPC 47ac0b54-b121-491c-a9c8-5ca6776e27cb 9780833034854 9780833032751 open access |
| spellingShingle | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::T Technology, Engineering, Agriculture, Industrial processes::TB Technology: general issues thema EDItEUR::W Lifestyle, Hobbies and Leisure::WG Transport: general interest Lempert, Robert J. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title | Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title_full | Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title_fullStr | Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title_short | Shaping the Next One Hundred Years |
| title_sort | shaping the next one hundred years |
| topic | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::T Technology, Engineering, Agriculture, Industrial processes::TB Technology: general issues thema EDItEUR::W Lifestyle, Hobbies and Leisure::WG Transport: general interest |
| topic_facet | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::T Technology, Engineering, Agriculture, Industrial processes::TB Technology: general issues thema EDItEUR::W Lifestyle, Hobbies and Leisure::WG Transport: general interest |
| url | ONIX_20231005_9780833034854_314 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lempertrobertj shapingthenextonehundredyears |