The Future of Mobility
What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that addre...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | English |
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RAND Corporation
2023
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| Online Access: | ONIX_20231005_9780833083692_1004 |
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| _version_ | 1869513951093456896 |
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| author | Brownell, Peter Light, Thomas Sorensen, Paul Samaras, Constantine Kalra, Nidhi |
| author_browse | Brownell, Peter Kalra, Nidhi Light, Thomas Samaras, Constantine Sorensen, Paul |
| author_facet | Brownell, Peter Light, Thomas Sorensen, Paul Samaras, Constantine Kalra, Nidhi |
| author_sort | Brownell, Peter |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly; here, demographics, economics, energy, transportation funding and supply, and technology); (2) elicit projections on descriptors (via expert workshops); (3) integrate into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool); (4) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool); (5) draw consequences for future mobility (by estimating future growth in travel modes based on the projections); and (6) create wild-card scenarios (by looking at events that might disrupt trends). Three key drivers differentiate the resulting scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulation, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures. In scenario 1, No Free Lunch, oil prices for consumers and business increase because of greenhouse gas–reduction legislation, and states and localities implement road pricing, which results in higher revenues. Mobility in this scenario is lower because of the higher costs of driving. Scenario 2, Fueled and Freewheeling, assumes that oil prices remain steady, no major environmental legislation is passed, and highway revenues decline, which results in generally higher mobility, especially miles driven. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the authors' aim is to help planners and policymakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change and, in the process, make better decisions now to affect the future of mobility in the United States. |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-115230 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | RAND Corporation |
| publisherStr | RAND Corporation |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-1152302024-03-30T12:50:44Z The Future of Mobility Brownell, Peter Light, Thomas Sorensen, Paul Samaras, Constantine Kalra, Nidhi Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KN Industry and industrial studies::KNG Transport industries thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UN Databases::UNA Database design and theory What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly; here, demographics, economics, energy, transportation funding and supply, and technology); (2) elicit projections on descriptors (via expert workshops); (3) integrate into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool); (4) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool); (5) draw consequences for future mobility (by estimating future growth in travel modes based on the projections); and (6) create wild-card scenarios (by looking at events that might disrupt trends). Three key drivers differentiate the resulting scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulation, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures. In scenario 1, No Free Lunch, oil prices for consumers and business increase because of greenhouse gas–reduction legislation, and states and localities implement road pricing, which results in higher revenues. Mobility in this scenario is lower because of the higher costs of driving. Scenario 2, Fueled and Freewheeling, assumes that oil prices remain steady, no major environmental legislation is passed, and highway revenues decline, which results in generally higher mobility, especially miles driven. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the authors' aim is to help planners and policymakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change and, in the process, make better decisions now to affect the future of mobility in the United States. 2023-10-05T10:29:01Z 2023-10-05T10:29:01Z 2013 book ONIX_20231005_9780833083692_1004 9780833083692 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/115230 eng image/jpeg n/a https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt5hhtpz RAND Corporation 10.7249/j.ctt5hhtpz 10.7249/j.ctt5hhtpz 47ac0b54-b121-491c-a9c8-5ca6776e27cb 9780833083692 open access |
| spellingShingle | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KN Industry and industrial studies::KNG Transport industries thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UN Databases::UNA Database design and theory Brownell, Peter Light, Thomas Sorensen, Paul Samaras, Constantine Kalra, Nidhi The Future of Mobility |
| title | The Future of Mobility |
| title_full | The Future of Mobility |
| title_fullStr | The Future of Mobility |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Future of Mobility |
| title_short | The Future of Mobility |
| title_sort | future of mobility |
| topic | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KN Industry and industrial studies::KNG Transport industries thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UN Databases::UNA Database design and theory |
| topic_facet | Transportation Studies Technology thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KN Industry and industrial studies::KNG Transport industries thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UN Databases::UNA Database design and theory |
| url | ONIX_20231005_9780833083692_1004 |
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