Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures
Futures work too often ignores the value of a better understanding of the ‘thick present’ and its evolutionary possibilities, something this chapter seeks to correct. The underlying theory draws on complexity science, assemblage and constructor theories as well as distributed ethnography. A new set...
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| Médium: | Online |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Edward Elgar Publishing
2024
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| On-line přístup: | https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/142585 |
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| _version_ | 1869517054290165760 |
|---|---|
| author | Snowden, Dave |
| author_browse | Snowden, Dave |
| author_facet | Snowden, Dave |
| author_sort | Snowden, Dave |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | Futures work too often ignores the value of a better understanding of the ‘thick present’ and its evolutionary possibilities, something this chapter seeks to correct. The underlying theory draws on complexity science, assemblage and constructor theories as well as distributed ethnography. A new set of methods, ‘Estuarine Mapping’ is outlined which allows the definition of the various fractal topographies and energy gradients of the present. In turn, this allows us to intervene to change the dispositional state of the system so it is easier to achieve a desired outcome. The chapter defines, and proposes a solution to, the problem of abduction in human decision-making. In trying to break an inability to see, pay attention to, and then act on weak signals the method seeks to plot a path to overcome a pattern of historical failure in futures work, despite accurate forecasts, scenarios and such like. The chapter builds on the 2021 joint publication of the Future Systems Directorate of the European Union and the Cynefin Centre: Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis. A field guide for decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework (EUFG) |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-142585 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Edward Elgar Publishing |
| publisherStr | Edward Elgar Publishing |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-1425852024-07-25T08:37:18Z Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures Snowden, Dave Assemblage; Abduction; Constructor; Constraint; Counter-factual; Sense-making JBFZ Futures work too often ignores the value of a better understanding of the ‘thick present’ and its evolutionary possibilities, something this chapter seeks to correct. The underlying theory draws on complexity science, assemblage and constructor theories as well as distributed ethnography. A new set of methods, ‘Estuarine Mapping’ is outlined which allows the definition of the various fractal topographies and energy gradients of the present. In turn, this allows us to intervene to change the dispositional state of the system so it is easier to achieve a desired outcome. The chapter defines, and proposes a solution to, the problem of abduction in human decision-making. In trying to break an inability to see, pay attention to, and then act on weak signals the method seeks to plot a path to overcome a pattern of historical failure in futures work, despite accurate forecasts, scenarios and such like. The chapter builds on the 2021 joint publication of the Future Systems Directorate of the European Union and the Cynefin Centre: Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis. A field guide for decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework (EUFG) Published 2024-07-25T08:37:01Z 2024-07-25T08:37:01Z 2024-07-18 chapter 9781035301607 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/142585 eng image/jpeg Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/handbook-of-futures-studies-9781035301591.html https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/handbook-of-futures-studies-9781035301591.html Edward Elgar Publishing Edward Elgar Publishing 10.4337/9781035301607.00011 10.4337/9781035301607.00011 01ceac28-75b4-492a-8eec-f9b98bc6b28c https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ 9781035301607 Edward Elgar Publishing Cheltenham, UK open access |
| spellingShingle | Assemblage; Abduction; Constructor; Constraint; Counter-factual; Sense-making JBFZ Snowden, Dave Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title | Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title_full | Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title_fullStr | Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title_short | Chapter 5: As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures |
| title_sort | chapter 5 as through a glass darkly a complex systems approach to futures |
| topic | Assemblage; Abduction; Constructor; Constraint; Counter-factual; Sense-making JBFZ |
| topic_facet | Assemblage; Abduction; Constructor; Constraint; Counter-factual; Sense-making JBFZ |
| url | https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/142585 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT snowdendave chapter5asthroughaglassdarklyacomplexsystemsapproachtofutures |