Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time
This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are fr...
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| Aineistotyyppi: | Online |
| Kieli: | englanti |
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Firenze University Press
2022
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| Linkit: | ONIX_20220915_9788855184618_34 |
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| _version_ | 1869529921593802752 |
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| author | Bakurov, Illya Culotta, Fabrizio |
| author_browse | Bakurov, Illya Culotta, Fabrizio |
| author_facet | Bakurov, Illya Culotta, Fabrizio |
| author_sort | Bakurov, Illya |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are from the Italian Labor Force Survey covering the years 2015-2019 at quarterly frequency. Over the quarters of the year 2020, i.e. a time period covered by the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions, actual and counterfactual unemployment dynamics are compared. Overall, this work tries to answer to the following question: what would have happened to unemployment dynamics if Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions would not arise as they did? Results can be informative to policymakers if the ARIMA projections can represent a reference for the aftermath of the pandemic. |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-92329 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Firenze University Press |
| publisherStr | Firenze University Press |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-923292025-08-13T13:42:31Z Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time Bakurov, Illya Culotta, Fabrizio Covid-19 Italy Unemployment Dynamics Counterfactual Analysis ARIMA thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are from the Italian Labor Force Survey covering the years 2015-2019 at quarterly frequency. Over the quarters of the year 2020, i.e. a time period covered by the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions, actual and counterfactual unemployment dynamics are compared. Overall, this work tries to answer to the following question: what would have happened to unemployment dynamics if Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions would not arise as they did? Results can be informative to policymakers if the ARIMA projections can represent a reference for the aftermath of the pandemic. 2022-09-22T04:12:53Z 2022-09-22T04:12:53Z 2022-09-15T20:06:00Z 2021 chapter ONIX_20220915_9788855184618_34 2704-5846 https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/58238 9788855184618 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/92329 eng Proceedings e report open access image/jpeg image/jpeg Attribution 4.0 International Attribution 4.0 International https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/58238/1/978-88-5518-461-8_40.pdf https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/58238/1/978-88-5518-461-8_40.pdf Firenze University Press 10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.40 10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.40 2ec4474d-93b1-4cfa-b313-9c6019b51b1a 9788855184618 6 Florence open access |
| spellingShingle | Covid-19 Italy Unemployment Dynamics Counterfactual Analysis ARIMA thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics Bakurov, Illya Culotta, Fabrizio Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title | Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title_full | Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title_fullStr | Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title_short | Chapter Unemployment dynamics in Italy: a counterfactual analysis at Covid time |
| title_sort | chapter unemployment dynamics in italy a counterfactual analysis at covid time |
| topic | Covid-19 Italy Unemployment Dynamics Counterfactual Analysis ARIMA thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics |
| topic_facet | Covid-19 Italy Unemployment Dynamics Counterfactual Analysis ARIMA thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JH Sociology and anthropology::JHB Sociology::JHBC Social research and statistics |
| url | ONIX_20220915_9788855184618_34 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bakurovillya chapterunemploymentdynamicsinitalyacounterfactualanalysisatcovidtime AT culottafabrizio chapterunemploymentdynamicsinitalyacounterfactualanalysisatcovidtime |