Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty
This chapter examines the social dynamics of projections about the outcomes and implications of the repeated elections in Israel. Based on a combination of a panel survey and focus groups, we analyze citizens’ evolving predictions regarding the expected largest party, the next prime minister, the co...
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| Format: | Online |
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Taylor & Francis
2023
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| Online-Zugang: | https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/60502 |
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| author | Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren Baden, Christian Aharoni, Tali Overbeck, Maximilian |
| author_browse | Aharoni, Tali Baden, Christian Overbeck, Maximilian Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren |
| author_facet | Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren Baden, Christian Aharoni, Tali Overbeck, Maximilian |
| author_sort | Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren |
| collection | Directory of Open Access Books |
| description | This chapter examines the social dynamics of projections about the outcomes and implications of the repeated elections in Israel. Based on a combination of a panel survey and focus groups, we analyze citizens’ evolving predictions regarding the expected largest party, the next prime minister, the coalition composition, and the future of Israel more generally. Introducing a conceptual framework that breaks political projections into several constituent elements, we study what probabilities and evaluations people assign to their predictions, how they explain them, and what their implications are for political participation. We show that despite the deepening political crisis, Israeli citizens’ political optimism did not decrease during the three 2019–2020 election campaigns. Furthermore, we find an important link between intention to vote and the expected level of happiness about the predicted outcomes. Based on these findings, we argue that persistent optimism is one explanation for the higher voter turnout in each round of elections. In the epilogue we consider additional insights from the 2021 election, which saw a reversal in voters’ growing optimism and turnout, but which eventually fulfilled hopes of the anti-Netanyahu camp for political change. |
| format | Online |
| id | doab-20.500.12854ir-95751 |
| institution | Directory of Open Access Books |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis |
| publisherStr | Taylor & Francis |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | doab-20.500.12854ir-957512025-05-08T06:33:11Z Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren Baden, Christian Aharoni, Tali Overbeck, Maximilian Elections; Israel; King Bibi; Netanyahu; populism; democracy This chapter examines the social dynamics of projections about the outcomes and implications of the repeated elections in Israel. Based on a combination of a panel survey and focus groups, we analyze citizens’ evolving predictions regarding the expected largest party, the next prime minister, the coalition composition, and the future of Israel more generally. Introducing a conceptual framework that breaks political projections into several constituent elements, we study what probabilities and evaluations people assign to their predictions, how they explain them, and what their implications are for political participation. We show that despite the deepening political crisis, Israeli citizens’ political optimism did not decrease during the three 2019–2020 election campaigns. Furthermore, we find an important link between intention to vote and the expected level of happiness about the predicted outcomes. Based on these findings, we argue that persistent optimism is one explanation for the higher voter turnout in each round of elections. In the epilogue we consider additional insights from the 2021 election, which saw a reversal in voters’ growing optimism and turnout, but which eventually fulfilled hopes of the anti-Netanyahu camp for political change. 2023-01-05T04:02:07Z 2023-01-05T04:02:07Z 2023-01-04T14:27:05Z 2022 chapter https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/60502 9781032213392 9781032213408 https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/95751 eng open access image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/60502/1/9781003267911_10.4324_9781003267911-11.pdf https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/60502/1/9781003267911_10.4324_9781003267911-11.pdf https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/60502/1/9781003267911_10.4324_9781003267911-11.pdf https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/20.500.12657/60502/1/9781003267911_10.4324_9781003267911-11.pdf Taylor & Francis Routledge 10.4324/ 9781003267911-11 10.4324/ 9781003267911-11 fa69b019-f4ee-4979-8d42-c6b6c476b5f0 The Elections in Israel, 2019–2021 European Research Council (ERC) 6a044850-f30f-4ed8-a4a5-8b5b4c45af59 9781032213392 9781032213408 European Research Council (ERC) EU collection Routledge 28 802990 open access |
| spellingShingle | Elections; Israel; King Bibi; Netanyahu; populism; democracy Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren Baden, Christian Aharoni, Tali Overbeck, Maximilian Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title | Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title_full | Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title_short | Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty |
| title_sort | chapter 8 persistent optimism under political uncertainty |
| topic | Elections; Israel; King Bibi; Netanyahu; populism; democracy |
| topic_facet | Elections; Israel; King Bibi; Netanyahu; populism; democracy |
| url | https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/60502 |
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